Source: Socialist Republic of Vietnam
The agency also put the annual inflation at 3.5-4.5% at a workshop on Vietnam’s economic prospects held on November 21.
NCIF Director Tran Thi Hong Minh said the two trade pacts with Pacific nations and the EU, known as CPTPP and EVFTA respectively, will have a wide-ranging impact on the Vietnamese economy in the next five years.
She said they could increase Vietnam’s GDP up by 4.3% and 1.3% respectively by 2030 thanks to their larger scope than other free trade deals, covering not only trade but also how the traded goods are made.
Vietnamese exports to the EU are projected to increase by 44.4% by 2030 while exports to CPTPP members are forecast to go up by 14.3% by 2035.
The two trade agreements are also expected to have a positive impact on Vietnam’s labour market and exert pressure on the government to improve institutions and the business environment, added Minh.
Under a more positive forecast, Vietnam’s average growth during the 2021-2025 period could hit 7.5% per year if the country can take advantage of technologies brought about by the fourth industrial revolution and attracts investment of higher quality.
According to experts, Vietnam’s growth drivers during the 2016-2020 period have not changed much, still mainly relying on investment, with the economic structure shifting rapidly to services while the industrial foundation remains weak.