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Analysts of the HSE Development Center, analyzing the data of the Central Bank, find in the latest issue of “Comments on the State and Business” that in June 2021 the balance of foreign trade in services first became positive and amounted to $ 0.1 billion – against a deficit of $ 0.7 billion in May. The value of exports of services amounted to $ 4.8 billion, imports – $ 4.6 billion. This is, respectively, 44% and 7% higher than in June 2020. With the adjusted seasonality, such exports (due to transport services) increased by 2% month-on-month – compensating for the decline in May. At the same time, the cost of imports decreased for the third month in a row: in June – by 13% (month-on-month).

In the structure of export of services, the share of business services (construction, IT services and others) in June fell to 46% – slowly moving to the figure of 30-40%, which was before the pandemic. Transport services account for a third of exports (37% a year ago). The share of travel in June rose to 5% (3% a year ago), while before the pandemic it reached 30%. In the structure of imports, the share of business services in June also remained high – 49% against less than 40% before the pandemic, the share of transport services did not change over the year (18%), and the share of foreign trips over the year, although it grew to 12%, but, like in exports, remained extremely low relative to the level of 2019 (41%).

The study authors cite data from UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development), according to which the tourism sector will recover faster in countries with high vaccination rates (France, Germany, Switzerland, UK and USA). The cost of importing services in terms of foreign trips of Russian citizens in June 2021 amounted to $ 0.5 billion against $ 3.8 billion in June 2019. The cost of foreign tourism services in the Russian Federation (that is, exports) amounted to $ 0.2 billion against $ 1.6 billion in June 2019. According to UNCTAD estimates, the decline in international tourism reduces Russia’s real GDP by about 1.5% and leads to losses in related sectors – which is partially offset by fiscal incentives and the development of domestic tourism.

The HSE Development Center estimated the net deferred demand for travel (the difference between imports and exports) at $ 27 billion, and the total volume of services not sold during the pandemic (deficit) at $ 34 billion. “In this regard, the pressure on the ruble from the demand for currency in terms of international services, it will most likely happen next year, ”they conclude there.

Source: Kommersant


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