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Rosstat polls of 3.9 thousand company executives indicate an increase in entrepreneurial confidence in mining and processing (see graph). Taking into account the seasonality, the corresponding index in processing reached a maximum since the beginning of 2018 (minus 0.4%), and in production it was minus 2% – slightly better than in June, but noticeably lower than the local maximums of 2021 (in February, the indicator even went a plus). It is difficult to determine what exactly led to the growth of indicators, especially in processing, according to statisticians (Rosstat does not publish series, taking into account the seasonality). However, as Kommersant has already reported, the survey indicators of the Gaidar Institute in July also remained at their maximums, although the forecasts worsened, and the June statistics of industrial production indicated a movement towards stagnation.

Optimism is probably caused by the absence of strict restrictions due to the next wave of COVID-19 morbidity (production, judging by the dynamics of the index, was upset by the imminent introduction of temporary export duties on metals from August). Additional evidence that the sector is not doing as well as the companies see it, and the real performance is still far from 2019 levels, is the average capacity utilization rate. According to Rosstat, in July 2021 it accounted for 60% in production and 61% in processing. At the same time, 89% of heads of companies in production and 88% in processing are confident that production facilities will meet the demand for products. In July 2019, an average of 69% of capacity in production and 64% in processing were utilized, and 90% of managers considered this to be sufficient to meet demand, and entrepreneurial confidence in processing was noticeably lower, and in production – significantly higher than the current one. Describing the external context, Rosstat notes that after two-digit negative values ​​in most EU countries, the index of entrepreneurial confidence in processing came out in a noticeable plus (except for Poland – minus 10.3% in June).

On a wave of positive sentiment from industry (at least from processing), one can expect a steady increase in hiring and wages. Hiring forecasts, according to the Gaidar Institute, are the only ones that continued to grow steadily in July. Rosstat also cites the lack of skilled workers as the only factor limiting processing output, which has grown in importance over the past year.

Source: Kommersant

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EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and / or sentence structure not be perfect.

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