MIL OSI Translation. Region: Russian Federation –
Contrary to the expectations of experts, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in the September forecast kept an extremely low estimate of the Russian wheat harvest – 72.5 million tons (excluding Crimea). At the same time, Russia, which last year was the leader in the supply of wheat to the world market, this year can share this leadership with the European Union.
According to the USDA, Russia and the EU will supply 35 million tons of wheat to foreign markets this season. Last year, the US Department of Agriculture estimated exports from Russia at 38.5 million tons, and from Europe at 29.62 million tons of wheat. At the same time, if for Russia the new forecast for the harvest was kept at the same level by American analysts, for Europe it was increased by 0.4 million tons. The estimate was also increased for Australia and India (1.5 million tonnes each), China (0.9 million tonnes), but decreased for Canada (by 1 million tonnes) and Argentina (0.5 million tonnes).
The USDA has the technical ability to make predictions based on data from satellites, but “decided not to risk it” and calculated using the figures from Rosstat, said Eduard Zernin, chairman of the Board of the Union of Grain Exporters. And while Rosstat maintains its estimate, the USDA will not change its own. Meanwhile, it is already at odds with the data of the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. According to them, Russia has already harvested 70 million tons of wheat from 80% of the area. And in Siberia, the harvest will be higher than usual.
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture still maintains its estimate of 81 million tons of wheat and 127.4 million tons of grain (including Crimea). This is one of the highest yields in the history of the country. Eduard Zernin says that the final harvest may be lower than this estimate, but we will definitely harvest at least 78 million tons of wheat. Estimation of the analytical company “ProZerno” – 77 million tons of wheat. Its CEO Vladimir Petrichenko is “disappointed” by the USDA’s assessment. But he believes that in the near future it will not affect anything – world prices have slightly decreased against the background of the general slightly increased forecast of American analysts, and so far there is no reason to believe that they will go up again.
Dmitry Rylko, director general of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), is skeptical and says that IKAR has recently adjusted its crop forecasts “closer to the USDA estimate.” In his opinion, it is obvious that it will not be possible to collect 81 million tons of wheat.
The Ministry of Agriculture is currently forecasting one of the highest harvests in history.
For Russia, the USDA sharply lowered the estimate of the harvest (by 12.5 million tons at once) back in the August forecast. He made such calculations on the basis of Rosstat data. And they turned out to be 1 million tons less than that of the Russian Ministry of Agriculture: they said that Rosstat did not take into account the reseeding of winter crops after June 1. The USDA estimate led to an increase in both world and domestic wheat prices. Experts pointed to the inadequately low estimate of the USDA and assumed that in the September forecast the estimate would be adjusted upward. On September 1, Rosstat published updated data, but the “lost” 1 million hectares were never “found.”
The absolute record for the harvest of wheat in Russia was set in 2017 – 86 million tons. Last year, Russia harvested 85.896 million tons.
A source: Russian newspaper
EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and / or sentence structure not be perfect.