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MIL OSI Translation. Region: Russian Federation –

Source: State University of Management – Official website of the State University –

Source:360

The coming April, together with spring warmth, will bring rising prices to Russia. In addition to the traditional rise in prices for seasonal vegetables, construction materials will be added, which will be in increased demand. In addition, the cost of imported equipment that Russians bought on foreign marketplaces is expected to increase. But, according to experts, the price increase will not be as significant as it seems.

A sharp rise in food prices should not be expected. Mostly seasonal vegetables will become more expensive: potatoes, carrots, cucumbers, tomatoes and others. This happens every year, because the previous harvest ends in warehouses, and the new one will be harvested only in the summer or autumn. Maxim Chirkov, associate professor of the department of economic policy and economic measurements at the Institute of Economics and Finance of the State University of Management, stated this to “360”.

“I wouldn’t call it an increase in price, because prices are calculated per year, especially for products that are so seasonally sensitive. In the spring, vegetables always become more expensive, and at the end of summer – beginning of autumn, plant products grown in Russia become cheaper,” he noted.

According to Rosstat, from March 19 to 25, prices for fruits and vegetables decreased. The leader in the list was cucumbers, which lost 5.4% over the week compared to the value of a week ago.

In other categories of products, the price decline was not so serious: onions (-0.3%), tomatoes (-0.2%), potatoes (-0.1%). At the same time, prices for beets (2.7%), carrots (1.0%) and apples (0.9%) increased.

But if you open the department’s data for the last few months, you can see that compared to December 2023, the increase in prices for vegetables was significant.

Over the winter, the prices that increased the most were cabbage (31.27%), beets (25.40%), fresh tomatoes (20.35%), and carrots (19.35). The average price for potatoes increased by 9.69%, and onions added 12.29%.

It is impossible to say yet how prices will rise in the spring, but there is a trend towards higher prices for vegetables. Chirkov warned that coffee prices would also go up. In recent weeks, prices on exchanges for this product have reached new highs.

Manufacturers warned about this last year. Drought in Brazil and Colombia, flooding in Indonesia and reduced planting in Vietnam have led to shortages in the global market.

The only product for which the expert saw no reason for price increases was bananas. The restriction on exports from Ecuador to Russia was lifted in mid-February, but during the downtime the cost of the product increased enough to stop.

At the beginning of the second spring month, the decision of the Eurasian Economic Commission (which includes Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan) to increase the threshold for duty-free import of goods for personal use from 200 to 1000 euros will expire.

This means that all purchases by Russians on foreign marketplaces over 200 euros will be subject to a 15% duty. For example, to buy a smartphone for 250 euros you will have to pay an additional 7.5 euros.

To maintain the current threshold, a new decision of the Commission Council at the level of heads of state is required. But he’s not there yet.

Chirkov saw no reason for the rise in price of foreign equipment in regular stores in Russia. According to his forecast, prices will decrease.

“If buyers are unable to buy on foreign marketplaces, then a large volume of these goods will begin to be sold through legal networks with the payment of all customs duties and other taxes,” he explained.

The expert added that as demand grows, traditional supply channels will expand and importers will reduce prices due to volume.

“This is a paradox, but lowering the duty-free threshold will lead to an increase in the efficiency of classic imports due to the growth of effective demand,” he noted.

With the onset of spring warmth, many Russians go to the dacha, where they begin to decorate their houses. Increased demand will also spur rising prices for building materials, which are rising in price against the backdrop of inflation.

“Building materials are a product even more dependent on seasonality than food. But we also cannot exclude the influence of a factor such as inflation on prices,” explained Maxim Chirkov.

According to his forecast, the increase in the value of this category of goods with the onset of the construction season will be more than 10%.

“Here we must take into account that the overall inflation rate is still far from the target of 4%, despite all efforts to change this situation. There are prerequisites for a decline, but for now we cannot isolate ourselves from inflationary processes,” he added.

According to Rosstat, by March 25, weekly inflation in Russia accelerated to 0.11%. In annual terms, it has not yet decreased and remains at 7.6%.

Subscribe to the tg channel “Our State University” Publication date: 04/2/2024

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The coming April, together with spring warmth, will bring rising prices to Russia. In addition to the traditional rise in prices for seasonal vegetables, construction materials,…

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